- Introduction to the course and the fundamentals of risk.
- Introduction to Bayesian thinking and the use of Bayesian networks in risk assesment.
- How to start in Netica.
- Probabilistic thinking, exposure response curves, and how risk varies in a landscape.
- Afternoon welcome reception at the SEA Discovery Center.
- Thinking about how to frame the risk assessment question and putting it into a Bayesian network risk assessment.
- Step by step examples of how the models were built.
- Building a conceptual model and its transformation into a Bayesian network.
- The issues with model quantification and the construction of conditional probability tables.
- Students start on formulating their projects.
- What is uncertainty and sensitivity?
- How to incorporate uncertainty in quantitative and qualitative terms.
- Building the Bayesian network from the conceptual models.
- Students work on building their risk assessments.
- Progress reports.
- Evening dinner at the Clearwater Casino Resort Private Dining Room.
- Presentation of class projects in a Risk Symposium.